Techaisle Blog

For decades, the technology channel has operated on a simple, foundational premise: partnership with the vendor. The model was clear - partners were an extension of the vendor's sales force, armed with vendor certifications, aligned with vendor GTM strategies, and loyal to the brand. Their success was inextricably linked to the vendor's success. Techaisle’s latest channel research, a comprehensive study of 4,115 partners, signals that this era is not just ending; it has already been rendered obsolete by a force that vendors have ironically championed: Artificial Intelligence.

A seismic shift is underway. Partners are quietly - and not so quietly - pivoting their allegiance away from their vendor suppliers and toward the only constituency that matters in the long run: the end customer. This is not about disloyalty. It is about survival and relevance in an AI-driven world. Techaisle research identifies a key trend that should serve as a five-alarm fire for every channel chief: the channel will pivot from vendor dependency to buyer value. This is not a future prediction; it is a present-day reality unfolding in partner business models, technology choices, and investment priorities.

The Data Does not Lie: The Anatomy of a Power Shift

The traditional vendor-partner dynamic was built on a dependency on product. Vendors created technology, and partners resold it, adding a layer of service. This created a natural fealty. But the very nature of partner revenue is changing. Techaisle data indicates that partner revenue is now predominantly driven by services, with 53% coming from services versus 47% from product resale. This is a critical tipping point. When a partner's profitability is driven more by their own expertise and intellectual property (IP) than by the margin on a vendor's product, their strategic calculus fundamentally changes.

This is where AI becomes the great accelerator of independence.

In the report “The SMB Channel and the Cloud”, Techaisle uses findings from in-depth surveys with US-based channel firms deriving at least 50% of revenue from sales to SMBs to illuminate conditions within the US SMB cloud channel, and to develop perspectives that suppliers (and the channel itself) can use to construct successful cloud channel strategies.

From 2013 to 2015, the percentage of SMB-focused channel partners that have become very successful in selling to SMBs has increased from 40% in 2013 to 63% in 2015. On the flip side, the percent of partners who are unsuccessful has increased by 60%. MSPs are the most successful partner type in cloud, while consultants are struggling to gain traction in the cloud market.

Highlights from the research include:

A strictly “by the numbers” review of the state of the SMB channel in the US paints a portrait of a well-balanced but fragmenting industry. Techaisle’s survey of SMB channel partners finds that revenues from products and services are approximately equal, and that services revenue are being derived from transactions that do not include products as well as from product-inclusive deals. SMB channel respondents report that 58% of revenue is attributable to services-led contracts and that a similar proportion of revenue is derived from recurring sources, vastly different from 2012, 2013 and 2014.

It is worth noting that while measures of this type provide a very useful benchmark for channel partners, some interpretation of the benchmark data is necessary. For example, the proportion of business attributable to services is only part of the issue that SMB channel management is wrestling with: what kind of services (for example, managed PCs or device maintenance?) is an important consideration in evaluating the impact of a channel services revenue stream.

Similarly, growth in services revenue is not necessarily a proxy for progress, as it can result from simple reductions in product revenue rather than effective transition to a business model properly aligned with the market as a whole. Techaisle believes that SMB channel partners that are looking to be part of the “managed services” channel should be targeting just over 20% of services revenue derived from managed services in 2016, and more than 40% by 2018.

The revenue growth expectations are also interesting. Although 63% of SMB channel partners are expecting revenue increases in the next one year, the scenario is quite dismal for VARs as compared to MSPs. 54% more VARs than MSPs are expecting their revenues to remain flat and a percentage of VARs are expecting their revenues to decline by an average of 30%. Even some MSPs are expecting their revenues to decline by an average of 20%.

However, the overall optimism for growth provides some insight into how and where the channel is growing.

Most SMB channel partners are positioned as “your one-stop solution provider.” The approach – which one might refer to as “we sell IT stuff, and you need IT stuff, and we understand it better than you do, so buy it from us” – is likely to come under pressure in 2015. More successful SMB VARs would focus on understanding how technology is used within business processes. Processes in turn can be horizontal (e.g., content management) or vertical, specific to the needs of a particular type of business (e.g., construction project management). Understanding the connection between vertical processes and IT – the stuff a VAR might sell, the (cloud) stuff a VAR might broker, and the stuff the SMB client is already using – represents a kind of expertise that will support a long-term billable relationship between “trusted advisor” VAR and client, and that this kind of relationship will become more important than the capacity to deliver IT as a horizontal solution source.